Estimate Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for First Quarter (April-June) of FY 2017-18
The Central Statistical Office of the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation (CSO) has issued estimates of Gross Domestic Products (GDP) for the first quarter (April-June) of FY 2017-18 on both stable (2011-12) and current values. At the same time, estimates of the expenses of the GDP have been issued for the same period. 2. The details of the estimates of the GDP for the first quarter of 2017-18 are given below-Estimates of GVA based on economic activitya. Stable (2011-12) at values 3. The GDP has been estimated to be Rs 31.10 lakh crore on stable (2011-12) values in the first quarter of the year 2017-18, which was Rs 29.42 lakh crore in the first quarter of 2016-2017. It shows an increase rate of 5.7 percent. For the first quarter of the year 2017-18, the quarter GVA at the original price at stable (2011-12) values has been estimated to be Rs 29.04 lakh crore, which was Rs 27.51 lakh crore in the first quarter of 2016-17. It shows an increase rate of 5.6 per cent against the same quarter of the previous year. 4. Economic activities reflecting a growth rate of more than 7 percent in the first quarter of 2017-18, against the first quarter of 2016-17 include business, hotel, transportation and communication and broadcasting services, public governance, defence and other services and electrical, gas, water supply and other useful services. Increased rate of agriculture, forestry and fisheries, mining and excavations, manufacturing, construction and financial, insurance, real estate and professional services are estimated to be 2.3 percent, (minus)-0.7 percent, 1.2, 2.0 and 6.4 percent respectively. 5. Industrial AnalysisThe first quarter estimate is based on monthly accounts of agricultural production, short financial results of the listed companies from BSE/NSE, during the Rabi season of 2016-17 received from the Department of Agriculture, Agriculture & Cooperation, Industrial Product Index and monthly accounts of expenditure of the Central Government and expenditure of the State Government in the April-June 2017-18 period. Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries5.1 In terms of agriculture, forestry and fishery sector, 2.3 per cent increase in quarterly GVA (Sacal Value Added) was recorded in the first quarter of 2017-18, while the growth rate was 2.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2016-17. The production of rice, wheat, coarse grains and pulses during the Rabi season of the Agriculture Year 2016-17 (which ended in June 2016) according to the information received from the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation, respectively recorded 5.8, 6.6, 10.7 and 25.0 percent. As far as commercial crops are concerned that the growth of 13.1 was recorded in oilseed production during the 2016-17 rabi season. Contribution of these crops including fruit vegetables is about 56.9 percent of GVA in agriculture, forestry and fishery sector. About 43.1 per cent of the GVA of the region is based on livestock products, forestry and fishery, which has recorded a combined growth rate of about 3.43 per cent in the first quarter of 2017-18. Mining & Excavators5.2 In terms of mining and excavation sector, quarterly GVA has increased rate -0.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2017-18, which was -0.9 per cent in the first quarter of 2016-17. The main indicators of the mining sector i.e. coal, cast oil and natural gas and IIP mining have recorded an increase rate of -4.4, 0.2, 4.0 and 1.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2017-18, which was 5.3, -3.3, -6.0 and 7.5 per cent respectively in the first quarter of 2016-17.Manufacturing5.3 In terms of manufacturing sector, a rate of 1.2 per cent in the quarter GVA at the original prices in the first quarter of 2017-18, which was 10.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2016-17. The growth rate of private corporate sector (which is more than 75 percent in the manufacturing sector) is estimated to be 0.9 percent at current values in the first quarter of 2017-18, which was 10.2 percent in the first quarter of 2016-17. The IEP manufacturing has recorded a growth rate of 1.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2017-18, which was 6.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2016-17. Electrical, gas, water supply and other useful services5.4 In terms of electrical, gas, water supply and other useful services, 7.0 percent increase in quarterly GVA at the first quarter of 2017-18, which was 10.3 percent in the first quarter of 2016-17. The main indicators of the region i.e. IEP Power recorded a growth rate of 5.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2017-2018 against 10.0 per cent of the first quarter of 2016-17. Construction5.5 In the first quarter of 2017-18 in terms of construction sector, quarterly GVA showed an increase of 2.0 per cent, which was 3.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2016-17. The main indicators of the construction sector i.e. cement production, finished steel consumption and IEP nonmetal minerals have recorded an increase of 2.9, 4.6 and -3.2 percent respectively in the first quarter of 1017-18, which was 5.8, 1.3 and 5.7 percent respectively in the first quarter of 2016-17.Business, Hotel, Transport, Communication and Broadcasting Services5.6 The growth rate of the quarter GVA at the original prices in the first quarter of 2016-17 was 11.1 percent, which was 8.9 percent in the first quarter of 2016-17. The main indicator used in GVA on behalf of the trade zone is an increase in sales tax. 16.9 percent increase in sales tax collection was recorded in the first quarter of 2017-18. The main indicators of railway i.e. net tonnes kilometres and passenger kilometres have been increased by 3.3 and 1.5 percent respectively during the first quarter of 2017-18. Passengers to be taken by civil aviation sector, the surge rate of cargo driven by civil aviation sector and cargo driven by major ports stood at 1.6, 19.2 and 5.0 per cent in the first quarter of 2017-18. In the sale of commercial vehicles recorded an increase of -9.1 percent during the first quarter of 2017-18. Financial, Insurance, Real Estate & Professional Services5.7 The growth rate of the quarter GVA at the original prices in the first quarter of 2017-18 was 6.4 per cent in respect of the region, which was 9.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2016-17. The major components of this industry are real estate and professional services, whose share is 73.1 percent. The quarterly growth rate of the corporate sector for computer related services has been 6.2 percent on current values in the first quarter of 2017-18. The growth rates of other indicators of the region i.e. total bank deposits and bank loans have declined 13.3 percent respectively in June, 2017.
Public Administration, Defence & Other Services5.8 The growth rate of the quarter GVA at the original prices in the first quarter of 2017-18 to the region is 9.5 percent, which was 8.6 percent in the first quarter of 2016-17. The growth of 19.8 per cent during the first quarter of 2017-18 has been recorded in the main indicators of the region i.e. the revenue expenditure of the Central Government (after adjustment of interest payments except for the subsidy), which was 20.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2016-17. (b) At current values Taxes payable on products are made after the adjustment of subsidy on the assessment products after adding to GVA at original prices. In the first quarter of 2017-18, GDP has estimated to be Rs 38.84 lakh crore, which was Rs 35.55 lakh crore in the first quarter of 2016-17. It shows an increase rate of 9.3 percent. GVA is estimated to be Rs 35.77 lakh crore at the original prices at the current prices in the first quarter of 2017-18, which was 33.17 percent in the first quarter of 2016-17. It shows an increase of 7.9 percent. In the first quarter of 2017-18, the growth rate of Central Steel Charges, Customs and Service Tax has been 7.3, 15.0 and 20.4 percent respectively, which was 60.5, 17.8 and 28.5 percent respectively in the first quarter of 2016-17. (c) Price index used as a deflation7. Bulk price index (WPI) in terms of various groups such as food ingredients, minerals, manufactured products, electrical and other commodity has been recorded in the first quarter of 2017-18, respectively -1.7, 5.5, 2.6, 0.7 and 2.3 percent increase in the first quarter of 2016-17. Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows an increase of 2.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2017-18 against the first quarter of 2016-17.
2. Expenditure Estimates on GDP8. सकल घरेलू उत्पाद (जीडीपी) पर व्यय अवयवों अर्थात खपत व्यय और पूंजी सृजन का आंकलन आमतौर पर बाजार मूल्यों पर किया जाता है। अतः निम्नलिखित पैराग्राफ में पेश किए गए समग्र आंकड़े बाजार मूल्यों के हिसाब से हैं।निजी अंतिम खपत व्यय9. 2017-18 की प्रथम तिमाही में वर्तमान मूल्यों पर निजी अंतिम खपत व्यय (पीएफसीई) 22.27 लाख करोड़ रूपये रहने का अनुमान लगाया गया है, जो 2016-17 की प्रथम तिमाही में 20.42 प्रतिशत था। स्थिर (2011-12) मूल्यों पर पीएफसीई 2017-18 की प्रथम तिमाही में 16.80 लाख करोड़ रूपये रहने का अनुमान लगाया गया है, जो 2016-17 की प्रथम तिमाही में 15.76 लाख करोड़ रूपये प्रतिशत था। जीडीपी के लिहाज से 2017-18 की प्रथम तिमाही में वर्तमान और स्थिर (2011-12) मूल्यों पर पीएफसीई की दरें क्रमशः 57.3 तथा 54.0 प्रतिशत रहने का अनुमान लगाया गया है, जो 2016-17 की प्रथम तिमाही में क्रमशः 57.4 तथा 53.6 प्रतिशत थी। सरकारी अंतिम खपत व्यय10. 2017-18 की प्रथम तिमाही में वर्तमान मूल्यों पर सरकारी अंतिम खपत व्यय (जीएफसीई) 5.19 लाख करोड़ रूपये रहने का अनुमान लगाया गया है, जो 2016-17 की प्रथम तिमाही में 4.34 लाख करोड़ रूपये था। स्थिर (2011-12) मूल्यों पर जीएफसीई 2017-18 की प्रथम तिमाही में 3.91 लाख करोड़ रूपये रहने का अनुमान लगाया है, जो 2016-17 की प्रथम तिमाही में 3.34 लाख करोड़ रूपये था। जीडीपी के लिहाज से वर्तमान और स्थिर (2011-12) मूल्यों पर जीएफसीई की दरें 2017-18 की प्रथम तिमाही में क्रमशः 13.4 तथा 12.6 प्रतिशत रहने का अनुमान लगाया है, जो 2016-17 की प्रथम तिमाही में क्रमशः 12.2 तथा 11.3 प्रतिशत थीं।सकल स्थिर पूंजी सृजन11. 2017-18 की प्रथम तिमाही में वर्तमान मूल्यों पर सकल स्थिर पूंजी सृजन (जीएफसीएफ) 10.69 लाख करोड़ रूपये रहने का अनुमान लगाया गया है, जो 2017-18 की प्रथम तिमाही में 10.37 लाख करोड़ रूपये था। स्थिर (2011-12) मूल्यों पर जीएफसीएफ 2017-18 की प्रथम तिमाही में 9.28 लाख करोड़ रूपये रहने का अनुमान लगाया गया है, जो 2016-17 की प्रथम तिमाही में 9.13 लाख करोड़ रूपये था। जीडीपी की दृष्टि से वर्तमान और स्थिर (2011-12) मूल्यों पर जीएफसीएफ की दरें 2017-18 की प्रथम तिमाही में क्रमशः 27.5 तथा 29.8 प्रतिशत रहने का अनुमान लगाया गया है, जो 2016-17 की प्रथम तिमाही में क्रमशः 29.2 तथा 31.0 प्रतिशत थी। 12. स्थिर (2011-12) मूल्यों और वर्तमान मूल्यों पर 2015-16, 2016-17 और 2017-18 की प्रथम तिमाही के लिए जीडीपी पर व्यय और आर्थिक गतिविधि के आधार पर मूल कीमत पर जीवीए के अनुमान विवरण 1 से लेकर 4 में दिए गए हैं। 13. जुलाई-सितम्बर 2017 की तिमाही (2017-18 की दूसरी तिमाही) के लिए जीडीपी अनुमान 30 नवंबर, 2017 को जारी किए जाएंगे।
